Ten IT Terms to Watch in 2004
WORDS IN ACTION: Ten IT Terms to Watch in 2004_____________
2004 outlook: VoIP to rise, Sun to set
By Paul Gillin, TechTarget Editor in Chief
It was a year when the bleeding stopped and the vital signs
stabilized. There were no big bankruptcies, few bold business
initiatives and little new technology to get excited about. But 2003
did give us a few reasons to cheer. Linux had a great year. Wi-Fi
networks got cheap. The biggest tech vendors returned to growth.
Microsoft got serious about security. Smart phones and PDAs kept
alive our lust for new tech.
Have three years of pain taught us a lesson? Nah. We'll just lose our
heads again when The Next Big Thing comes along. That probably won't
be in 2004, but there are a few events and trends that are likely to
keep us interested. Here are ten terms to keep an eye on in 2004:
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TERM: VoIP
http://searchnetworking.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid7_gci214148,00.html?track=NL-35
PAUL'S 2004 PREDICTION: This stuff finally works, and with companies
like 3M and IBM making corporate-wide commitments to route voice
traffic using Internet Protocol, the stage is set for this
much-anticipated technology to move into the mainstream. VOIP's
cost-saving benefits will be dwarfed by the technology's potential to
reshape the way organizations communicate. When VoIP finally takes
off, it's gonna be big. And this is the year it takes off.
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TERM: Linux
http://searchenterpriselinux.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid39_gci212482,00.html?track=NL-35
PAUL'S 2004 PREDICTION: Linux begins to look like Windows -- SCO is
trying to make you pay to use Linux. Red Hat just toughened up its
license fees, and HP is muttering that it would be a good idea if
users paid more of the bills. See a pattern there? The free ride is
over as the Linux market consolidates and the winners start to charge
for what they used to give away. While Linux will never be as
expensive as Windows, the fees are going to take on more and more of
a Microsoft-ian quality.
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TERM: Sun
http://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/0,,sid9_gci801397,00.html?track=NL-35
PAUL'S 2004 PREDICTION: Sundown -- My boldest prediction last year
was that IBM would buy Sun. Now I have to wonder why anyone would
want it. This once-proud company increasingly looks like the Digital
Equipment Corp. of the '00s. Low-cost commodities invariably push out
high-ticket specialties, and Solaris is Mercedes in a Toyota market.
Sun may still stake out a profitable position as a boutique
technology supplier, but its days as a market heavyweight are over.
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TERM: offshore outsourcing
http://searchcio.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid19_gci924479,00.html?track=NL-35
PAUL'S 2004 PREDICTION: China's outsourcing star rises -- The pursuit
of cost savings favors China's rise as an international power in
technology outsourcing. The company already has 400,000 IT
specialists and is undercutting India by a third on outsourcing
contracts. The language barrier will prevent China from becoming a
major business process outsourcing force for some time, but the
country's cheap, educated work force will make it a top destination
for software development projects.
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TERM: CRM
http://searchcrm.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid11_gci213567,00.html?track=NL-35
PAUL'S 2004 PREDICTION: Siebel becomes acquisition bait -- Could
IBM's partnership with Siebel be a precursor to a Big Blue takeover?
Or will Oracle abandon its pursuit of PeopleSoft and set its sights
on the smaller CRM specialist? One thing is clear: It's going to be
difficult for Siebel to continue on its own. SAP CRM is eating
Siebel's lunch in its core market, and Siebel's commitment to the
hosted software model rings hollow in light of its reliance on
expensive software licenses. Customers should take heart in the fact
that whoever buys Siebel will probably put major stock in keeping
them happy.
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TERM: tablet PC
http://searchmobilecomputing.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid40_gci509982,00.html?track=NL-35
PAUL'S 2004 PREDICTION: This is the Year of the Tablet -- After
chunking away at tablet computing for about eight years, PC makers
have finally got it figured out. The new models are sleek,
lightweight and gorgeous. Ink capture is the killer app, and
Microsoft has got a hit with OneNote. Tablets are beginning to appear
in the arms of techno-enthusiasts everywhere. From there, it's only a
short hop into the mass market, and this is the breakout year.
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TERM: RFID
http://searchnetworking.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid7_gci805987,00.html?track=NL-35
PAUL'S 2004 PREDICTION: RFID catches the hype wave -- It's basically
a bar code on steroids, but RFID technology has the chance to
revolutionize the supply chain. Never mind that real change is years
away, the emergence of a disruptive technology -- any disruptive
technology -- will be celebrated by a media and analyst community
that's starved for something new. Wal-Mart and the Department of
Defense will both require suppliers to use the tiny tags by early
2005. But don't bet on those deadlines to hold. Many small suppliers
can't even spell RFID, much less implement it, and the applications
that take advantage of data always lag behind data collection itself.
RFID will be big because it's a truly disruptive technology. But
don't count on reality to catch up to the hype for years.
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TERM: grid computing
http://searchcio.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid19_gci773157,00.html?track=NL-35
PAUL'S 2004 PREDICTION: Grids go bust -- Grid computer networks are
hard to build and operate, but you wouldn't know that from the
vendors who are already hyping their products as grid-compatible.
This is a good concept that will become so overused by tech marketers
that it will be meaningless within a year or two. Grids are the
artificial intelligence of the '00s.
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TERM: quality assurance
http://searchcio.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid19_gci816126,00.html?track=NL-35
PAUL'S 2004 PREDICTION: Microsoft hit with liability suit -- User
outrage at security holes in Microsoft products has grown, despite
Redmond's efforts to address the problem. The battle reaches a fever
pitch in 2004 as a user launches a liability suit at Microsoft for
business damages caused by software flaws. The legal action is
prohibited by the license agreement, of course, but the case makes a
dramatic point that users want software vendors to take more
responsibility for the quality of their products.
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TERM: Wi-Fi
http://searchmobilecomputing.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid40_gci838865,00.html?track=NL-35
PAUL'S 2004 PREDICTION: The costs of accessing Wi-Fi services will
drop to near zero in many urban locations, as merchants decide that
an Internet connection is a cheap way to keep customers sipping
lattes or munching McNuggets.
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Hki :)
